Minsheng Securities: Great Wall motor buy rating

2022-06-03 0 By

Shao Jiang and Xie Kun, Minsheng Securities Co., LTD., conducted research on Great Wall Motor and released the research report “Review on 2021 Annual Report: Rising Revenue of Single vehicles, Rising volume and price soon”. The report gave a buy rating on Great Wall Motor, and the current stock price is 26.71 yuan.Great Wall Motor (601633) event: On March 29, 2022, the company released the 2021 annual report, achieving a total operating revenue of 136.405 billion yuan, +32.0% year-on-year, and a net profit of 6.726 billion yuan, +25.4% year-on-year.Revenues hit a record high and r&d investment increased to support product strength.2021Q4 the company’s operating revenue reached 45.607 billion yuan, year-on-year +10.8%/ quarter-on-quarter +58.0%, a single quarterly record high;Parent net profit of 1.781 billion yuan, year-on-year -35.8%/ quarter-on-quarter +25.8%.Revenue hit a record high in 2021;Net cash flow from operating activities was 35.32 billion yuan, +581.61% year on year;Overseas revenue reached 16.16 billion yuan, up 142.24% year on year, contributing to the increase in operating performance.In 2021, the company’s gross margin was 16.2%, -1.1PCT year-on-year, mainly due to the increase of management and R&D expenses.In 2021, the company’s sales/management/R&D/finance expenses are respectively +26.5%/+58.5%/46.4%/-212.9% year-on-year, and the expense ratio is -0.2PCt /+ 0.5PCt /+ 0.3PCt /-0.7pct year-on-year. The sales expense ratio is marginal downward, and the equity incentive amortization increases the management cost.In 2021, the company will increase r&d efforts, and the R&D investment is as high as 9.07 billion yuan, +76.05% year-on-year, accounting for 6.65% of the revenue, providing strong technical support for product experience upgrade.The sales volume structure continued to improve, with single-vehicle revenue of +15.0% year-on-year.Annual company achieve total sales of 1.281 million vehicles in 2021, compared with + 15.2%, the harvard/tanks/WEY/euler/Great Wall pickup 77.00/8.46/13.50/5.84 / sell 233000 respectively, compared with the + / – 2.6% / + 140.0% / 25.7% / + 3.6%,Among them, tanks accounted for more than 50% of the market share of hard-drive off-road vehicles. Great Wall pickup has maintained the first domestic and export pickup sales for 24 consecutive years, and the global cumulative sales exceeded 2 million units.Thanks to the hot sales of tank 300/ Hafer First Love/Hafer God Beast/Great Wall gun and other high-priced models, the sales structure of the company has been further improved. The annual revenue of single vehicles reached 106,500 yuan, +15.0% year-on-year, and 21Q4 reached 114,900 yuan, +20.3% year-on-year and +5.8% year-on-year.The profit of bicycle reached RMB 300, +8.84%.In 2022, Hafu Shenshou /Wey Mocha DHT/ Tank 500 will be launched successively, which is expected to further promote sales and business growth.Intelligent technology enables brands to improve, and volume and price are expected to rise in 2022.In January-February 2022, lemon, Tank and Coffee Smart three technology brands accounted for 75.1% of the total.Relying on the modular platform of “Lemon + Tank + Coffee Intelligence” to reduce cost and increase efficiency, the company will accelerate the iteration of models, and new products such as Hafer Cool Dog, Tank 700/800, Ola Ballet Cat/Punk Cat/Lightning Cat and Mecaroon will be gradually launched, which will help the company’s sales continue to rise.In terms of intelligent driving, from January to February in 2022, the proportion of Intelligent models of Great Wall has increased to 88.1%. The NOH advanced intelligent driving plan developed by The Whole stack of The Great Wall is planned to carry 34 Great Wall passenger vehicle models by the end of 2022.Enabled by technology, Great Wall motor’s sales volume of models over 150,000 yuan will increase to 15.5% in January-February 2021. In the future, with the gradual introduction of high-end models of various brands, the company’s profitability is expected to further improve.Investment Advice: Affected by the shortage of core and the price rise of raw materials, we reduce the net profit attributable to parent in 2022. It is estimated that the company’s net profit attributable to parent in 2022-2024 will be 95.49/156.57/18.878 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to the current PE price of 28/17/14 times.Optimistic about the company’s electric intelligent and multi-brand strategy development, maintain the “recommendation” rating.Risk Warning:Raw material price fluctuations, chip supply less than expected, passenger car market recovery than expected securities star data center calculate according to the research data released in nearly three years, Mr. Chen hua securities researcher team a in-depth research on the stock, nearly three years average prediction accuracy is as high as 95.38%, its net profit for 10.275 billion profit forecast 2022 belonging,The forecast PE at current prices is 24.06.The latest earnings forecast details are as follows: the stock in the recent 90 days a total of 29 institutions to give ratings, buy rating 23, overweight rating 6;The average institutional price target over the past 90 days is 50.22.Securities star valuation analysis tool shows that Great Wall Motor (601633) good company rating of 3.5 stars, good price rating of 2.5 stars, valuation composite rating of 3 stars.(Rating range: 1 ~ 5 stars, maximum 5 stars) The above content is collated by Securities Star according to public information, if you have any questions, please contact us.