In 10 days, the central media “mentioned” the real estate market three times, what price signal?The understanding of

2022-07-04 0 By

Unlike 2021, when the real estate market continued to adjust and tighten, the real estate market has welcomed a lot of positive news since entering 2022.For example, for many children family subsidies to “money” to buy a house, the real estate m&a loan is no longer included in the “three line”, many cities began to reduce the down-payment requirements of commercial loans, can achieve 20%, the lowest at the same time, guangzhou, suzhou, nanjing, hangzhou and other many key cities also started to cut the first set and second set mortgage rates, and so on.For the long-term adjustment and downward in the housing market, these measures to the market undoubtedly delivered a warm and favorable signal.Facing the changing wind direction of the property market, home buyers have also become restless.Among them, many voices believe that the worst of the housing market regulation has passed, the next property market to pick up, housing prices may rise again.However, according to the follow-up market data, policy warm wind did not let the property market appear more obvious warm.On the one hand, the statistics bureau’s February housing price data of 70 cities showed that new houses fell in 40 cities month-on-month, while second-hand houses fell in 57 cities. In other words, at least 60% of the cities’ housing prices are still on the downward path.On the other hand, according to the financial statistics released by the central bank in February, the medium and long term loans directly related to home loans decreased by 45.9 billion yuan year-on-year, which shows that the current purchase intention is still in a low state.So, how will the property market go next?Is it to continue the downward trend or is it possible to relax regulation?That’s what a lot of people want to know right now.Recently for a period of time, within 10 days, state-run media economic daily three times referred to the real estate market, not only in view of the current housing market appeared a lot of changes in the response, and at the same time for the next phase of house prices to clear analysis are given, it just to see the buyers eat a reassured, ready to buy a house should pay attention to.013 16th, Central Media Economic Daily published “Where will the Real Estate Market go this year?In 2021, China’s real estate market experienced some ups and downs, but based on the overall development of the macro economy, it is expected that the real estate market in 2022 needs and can generally continue to achieve stable development, the article said.The conclusion is clear, simple is four words: steady development.So why does the housing market “need” to develop smoothly?Why is the real estate market “able” to develop smoothly?We can find the reasons from two aspects: 1. The real estate industry is large in scale, has a long chain and involves a wide range of areas. It is closely related not only to the economy, but also to local fiscal revenue and household wealth of ordinary people.Therefore, even in the face of regulation, the real estate industry “needs” to develop smoothly.Just as Liu Shijin, vice chairman of the China Development Research Foundation, said: It is not necessary to rely on real estate to drive the economy, but it is also necessary to maintain steady growth.2, according to the bureau of statistics data show that by the end of 2020, China’s permanent population urbanization rate reached 63.89%, but the hukou urbanization rate is only 44.4%, indicating that at present a lot of people haven’t buy a house, at the same time, there is a steady stream of the rural population is poured into the city, so demand for housing is still relatively strong at least 5 years,This also determines that although the real estate market will face some fluctuations, but still can maintain stable development.A few days ago, the State Financial Commission held a special meeting and made a specific statement on the real estate market: Real estate enterprises should timely study and put forward a powerful and effective plan to prevent and defuse risks.Subsequently, the Central Bank, the Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the Ministry of Finance and other departments have also pledged to actively cooperate with relevant departments to defuse the risks of real estate enterprises, promote the transformation of the development mode of the real estate industry, and promote the healthy and stable development of the real estate market.In this regard, on March 20, the Central Media Economic Daily published another article titled “What Signal will various Departments Send out when they Make Statements on the Operation of the Real Estate Market?”The real estate market is still in a period of deep adjustment, and some real estate companies are still being bailed out. At the same time, repeated outbreaks of COVID-19 have brought uncertainty to the market.So both buyers and developers need to rebuild confidence and avoid the risk of a hard landing.As we all know, affected by the “three red lines”, since last year, high debt housing enterprises are generally facing financing pressure, individual head housing enterprises also appeared the phenomenon of thunder.This statement by the Financial Commission and central media is no less than a “timely rain”, which helps to boost the current market confidence and stabilize market expectations, so it has important guiding significance for preventing market risks.In my opinion, in order to further dredge all links of the real estate market, so as to promote the virtuous cycle development of the real estate market, it is expected that the warm wind of policy will continue to blow in 2022, and the normal financing needs of real estate enterprises may be satisfied.03 Since entering 2022, many cities across the country have gradually blown a wave of “rescue” property market.Among them, the most worthy of attention is the loosening of mortgage policy.According to data released by shell Research Institute, monitoring 103 key cities, mainstream first set of mortgage interest rate is 5.34%, the second set of interest rate is 5.60%, respectively 13 points, 15 basis points lower than last month.Banks in Suzhou, for example, have lowered their first-home loan rates to as low as 4.6%, the same as LPR rates for more than five years.Mortgage rates in hangzhou, Guangzhou, Nanjing and other key cities have also been cut by 10 to 30 basis points.Not only that, the lending speed of major banks has also significantly accelerated, some banks can slow down in two or three weeks, compared with last year greatly shortened cycle.So, does the current easing of mortgage policies mean a round of rising house prices in 2022?In this regard, the Central media Economic Daily published on March 21, “The acceleration of mortgage issuance releases a” steady demand “signal”, the article said bluntly: this view is biased, the market need not over-interpret, more can not be linked to the rise in housing prices.Why do you say that?In fact, it is not difficult to understand that at this stage, the positioning of “housing is not speculation” has not changed, and the easing of credit policy is mainly used to support just need groups.For example, data show that more than 90% of the loans are for the first house, so it is to protect the interests of just demand, release reasonable housing demand, so as to promote the steady development of the property market, the demand for real estate speculation has been excluded.Moreover, according to the rule of the past, banks tend to lend at the beginning of the year, and the ultimate factor affecting housing prices depends on supply and demand changes, so there is no need to read too much.To sum up: In just 10 days, the central media mentioned the real estate “three times”, and the direction is very clear: 1. The important role of the real estate in the national economy, family wealth and urbanization determines that stability is still the main theme of the real estate market, so the trend of the housing price in 2022 is clear.2. For real estate enterprises, it is necessary to prevent and resolve possible problems and risks. It is expected that the subsequent reasonable and normal financing needs will be met, so as to boost and restore market confidence.3. The easing of credit policy is to protect the interests of the needy and release reasonable housing demand, so as to stabilize the real estate market without being directly linked to the rise of housing prices.It is not hard to see, compared with the strict control policy in 2021, 2022 housing wind does appear a certain degree of change, but could see that, no matter how the wind changed, one thing has not changed: both to avoid the real estate market to return to the orbit of real estate, also want to avoid the housing overall downward, virtuous circle is the future housing advocate fundamental key.